So, having just completed watching all the Best Picture nominees (for the first time before the awards are announced) I feel fairly invested in this year’s ceremony. That might also have to do with the quality of this year’s crop of Best Picture nominees. I liked all of the films nominated this year compared to last year with the likes of Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, A star is born and Roma (although my opinion on Roma changed after a rewatch).
One thing the pundits always say is it’s rarely about the quality of the film when predicting the Oscars so keep your feelings for the film aside. That statement is mostly true, but it isn’t about just facts and figures either. That’s why, despite all of our misgivings we still like to play this game, it combines our love of films with a certain type of betting. So here are my predictions, sans all the shorts and Best Documentary because I haven’t seen any of those.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away from Toy Story 4
(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again from Rocketman
I’m Standing With You from Breakthrough
Into The Unknown from Frozen II
Stand Up from Harriet
Actually I haven’t seen any films from this category either nor have I heard any of the songs. I don’t know why I skipped Toy Story 4 in the theater because I liked the first three, but whatever. The Rocketman song is the frontrunner and since the film isn’t nominated for anything else they will most certainly reward it here. I’d like to see Breakthrough win just for the online reaction though.
Prediction: (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again from Rocketman
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
All the criticisms for Joker aside one thing it’s widely praised for is it’s score which ably sets up a disturbing mood. Personally I would go for Little Women but Joker isn’t a bad choice either. I do hope though that whoever is presenting gets Hildur Guðnadóttir’s pronunciation right.
Prediction: Joker
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
Bombshell should win, but two factors should be considered. First, how much the voters hate Megyn Kelly and second, how much momentum Joker has. The makeup is impressive enough though that I think it overcomes both hurdles.
Prediction: Bombshell
Achievement in costume design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Little Women’s costumes seem tailor made (hmmm) to impress voters and it would be a very worthy winner. If Jojo Rabbit wins though it could be a massive indicator of Academy support that may propel it to win in more major categories.
Prediction: Little Women
Achievement in sound editing
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Any of the nominees could win this really but Ford v Ferrari is technically impressive enough that it might snag both this and Sound Mixing.
Prediction: Ford v Ferrari
Achievement in sound mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
But then again, I think one of these will be won by a Best Picture nominee and at this moment 1917 is more likely than Once.
Prediction: 1917
Achievement in visual effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
There’s a certain contingent that hates The Lion King and the Star Wars film doesn’t inspire much passion. Perfect opportunity for Avengers to sneak in. If that happens, bet they pan to Scorsese in the crowd.
Prediction: Avengers: Endgame
Achievement in production design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
The production design and cinematography work in perfect conjunction in 1917. It would be my pick too but this is one of those precursor categories where it would be pitted against Parasite.
Prediction: 1917
Achievement in film editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite
It’s unfortunate that Thelma Schoonmaker won’t get recognized for her subtle work on the The Irishman. The length of the film puts any chance of that happening out of the realm of possibility. In fact, Irishman seems to be the only picture nominee that will go empty-handed. Instead, Ford v Ferrari’s somewhat workman-like editing will likely win, although Parasite winning will be pleasent.
Prediction: Ford v Ferrari
Achievement in cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Deakins has this. After not winning for, what was it 12 attempts, he’s primed to win two in a row. Can’t say he doesn’t deserve it.
Prediction: 1917
Best animated feature film of the year
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Toy Story 4 is the frontrunner but Netflix is just begging to play spoiler. The question though is which one Body or Klaus? I hope neither and I expect neither.
Prediction: Toy Story 4
Best international feature film of the year
Corpus Christi
Honeyland
Les Misérables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Parasite may be even more of a lock than Roma was last year. Cold War at least had a director nomination, but Pain and Glory only has word of mouth. It would be the upset of upsets if it happened.
Prediction: Parasite
Adapted screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
The Irishman seems to have lost it’s momentum and now the race has come down to Little Women and Jojo Rabbit. I’m gonna guess Women because of it’s more literary origins.
Prediction: Little Women
Original screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
Again Tarantino seems to have lost his momentum in favor of Marriage Story and Parasite. 1917 upset is unlikely but still possible but Parasite is likely winning this one since it may not win Picture.
Prediction: Parasite
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell
Laura Dern in Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh in Little Women
Margot Robbie in Bombshell
The acting categories seem to be locked up , which has some people clamoring for an upset. It probably won’t be in this category though.
Prediction: Laura Dern in Marriage Story
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes
Al Pacino in The Irishman
Joe Pesci in The Irishman
Brad Pitt in Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Brad Pitt being the frontrunner in a category that features such legends as Pacino, Pesci, Hanks and Hopkins would have seemed unlikely under any scenario and yet here we are and nobody seems to have any problem with it because Pitt is brilliant.
Prediction: Brad Pitt in Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cynthia Erivo in Harriet
Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan in Little Women
Charlize Theron in Bombshell
Renée Zellweger in Judy
Now if an upset were to happen this would be the category. Last year the frontrunner lost and though Zellweger appears stronger than Close I can see Johansson’s double nomination paying off here. This might be my boldest prediction of the lot.
Prediction: Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Adam Driver in Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix in Joker
Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes
Unwittingly or not, Phoenix has played the awards circuit brilliantly, always congratulating the other nominees and talking about systematic racism. Add to that the fact that he is outstanding in the film and there’s no way anybody else is winning this.
Achievement in directing
The Irishman-Martin Scorsese
Joker-Todd Phillips
1917-Sam Mendes
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood-Quentin Tarantino
Parasite-Bong Joon Ho
Whatever happens in Picture, Sam Mendes is a lock here. It’s the type of virtuoso directing that the Academy always rewards. He may not be my choice (Scorsese would be mine but a couple of factors go against his way) and neither do I think he was due for an second Oscar but I can’t say I would be too upset.
Prediction: 1917-Sam Mendes
Best motion picture of the year
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
They might do something historic and give the award to Parasite. Or they could award 1917 which wouldn’t be drastically different from previous winners. Or there could be a spilt among the two groups, the preferential ballot will do it’s thing and someone surprising will come out on top. My money is on Parasite and perhaps it is a little wishful thinking. Whatever happens though the tensest moment will be saved for the end and that is as it should be.
Prediction: Parasite
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